Are Forward Citations a Good Value Proxy?

The classic answer is yes—and five years of litigation data mostly agree. But the signal is a lot noisier and weaker than commonly assumed.

Looking at 4,300 original utility patents (excluding continuations, which inflate forward-citation counts) versus a control group of randomly granted original utilities, the picture is nuanced.

The Headline Numbers

Asserted patents are cited far more often than controls. The average forward citation count is 43 for asserted patents vs 9 for controls. The median tells a similar story—12 citations (asserted) vs just 2 (control).

The Noisy Reality

Despite higher averages, forward citations are a surprisingly noisy signal for individual patents. A full 44% of asserted patents have below-average forward citation counts (fewer than 9). Even more striking, 11% of asserted patents have zero citations. Many commercially valuable patents simply do not get cited much.

The Extreme Right Tail

Where the signal really shines is at the extreme high end. About 5% of asserted patents have 100+ citations, compared to just 0.1% of controls—roughly a 50x overrepresentation in the asserted population.

Patents with 100+ forward citations deserve extra scrutiny. They are massively more likely to show up in litigation.

Implications for Patent Valuation

Forward citations are like top schools: a strong signal on average, but plenty of valuable patents have low or zero citations. Use citations as one factor among many—not as a standalone quality filter. The extreme right tail (100+ citations) is the most actionable threshold for identifying high-risk or high-value patents.